UFC 63
UFC picks and reviews by our resident expert the "Z-Child".
Check this page regularly for picks of the most recent fights and pay per view events.
Direct Link to Page: www.thirsty13.com/UFC63
September 23rd, 2006
Matt Hughes Vs. BJ Penn
BJ Penn has never been submitted or stopped in his career. All his 3 losses are by decision to elite fighters (UFC Lightweight Champ Jens Pulver, undefeated light heavyweight Lyoto Machida, and Georges St. Pierre. And despite losing a split decision to Georges St. Pierre, he was never in any kind of trouble in that fight. In fact, he's never been in serious trouble in any of his fights.
Matt Hughes has a superior 39-4 record to Penn's 10-3 record. Three of his losses are by submission (twice by Dennis Hallman and once by Penn in 2003) and one by a KO from a knee by Jose Landi-Jons.
In their first fight, Hughes definitely underestimated the lightweight Penn. That still doesn't change the fact that Penn dominated the fight. He hurt Hughes standing, landed a huge punch while Hughes was down, and then took his back and choked him out.
Against Carlos Newton in 2001, Hughes got caught in a triangle choke that had him unconscious. Luckily for Hughes, his desperation slam left Carlos Newton dazed at the same time and the referee made the dubious call that Newton was out first. Then at UFC 48 in 2004, Renato Verissimo almost finished him with a triangle choke as well. Hughes used his strength to pull a last second escape and then won a razor thin decision. BJ Penn has better Jiu Jitsu than Newton or Verissimo. If he gets a triangle choke on Hughes, or any kind of choke, he likely won't lose it.
Since Hughes won the the title, he's faced sub par competition. Verissimo, Frank Trigg, Joe Riggs, and a 39 year old Royce Gracie are not elite level welterweights. Fighting Penn he wont be able do the same things he did against those fighters. Hughes could definitely win, but I think Penn has more ways to win and therefore a better chance. He can win striking or by submission, while Hughes best chance to win is to pull out a decision.
Vegas has Penn as a +160 underdog. Despite that, my pick is Penn by submission in round 2. Penn will shock the world again and regain the belt, setting up a rematch with St. Pierre.
Mike Swick Vs. David Loiseau
The pick is Swick (by decision). I doubt he can knock out Loiseau if Franklin couldn't. But his overall skills are better than Loiseau's. When David fights a good stand up fighter, he doesn't do well, as we saw against Rich Franklin and Jorge Rivera. When he fights ground fighters like Evan Tanner, he does well because of his devastating elbows. He won't bring the fight to the ground though, and neither will Swick. Swick is the better technical striker and he should be able to control the standup and win the fight.
Jason Lambert Vs. Rashad Evans
I pick Lambert by submission in round 3. I think this is a big step up in competition for Rashad. Rashad will probably be able to get takedowns, but Lambert is big and strong enough to reverse them. I think Rashad will be worn down by round 3 and the submission will be there for Lambert. I don't feel strongly about this pick though. I think Evans has a good shot of winning too. When the Vegas line comes out on this it will be about even.
Boston's own Joe Lauzon Vs. Jens Pulver
Pulver by TKO stoppage round 2. Sorry Joe. It's tough to make a UFC debut by getting thrown in against the former champ. Hopefully Joe can survive at least a round and try some of the crazy leg locks he likes to use. Luckily Joe has his Wentworth Computer Science degree to fall back on if he loses this fight and doesn't get invited back to the big show.
Gabe Ruediger Vs. Melvin Guillard
I pick Guillard by TKO stoppage round 3. His striking skills at 155 are solid. I honestly don't know much about Ruediger so I probably shouldn't be making a prediction but Guillard skilled.
Mario Neto Vs. Gabriel Gonzaga
No idea on this one... I've seen Gonzaga a couple times and he's looked pretty sloppy. I'd still pick him to win if I had to. I guess Gonzaga by decision.
Danny Abbadi Vs. Jorge Gurgel
Apparently Abbadi is dropping down from 185 to 155? I still pick Gurgel. He's had much more experience and he's a jiu jitsu black belt. he should be able to get a submission victory by round 2, if not sooner.
David Lee Vs. Tyson Griffin
Griffin by TKO round 1. I don't know much about either fighter, but Tyson does have a win over highly regarded Urijah Faber.
Mario Neto Vs. Eddie Sanchez
No idea. Never seen either guy.
Roger Huerta vs. Jason Dent.
Jason Dent is a last minute replacement. That usually doesn't bode well. Huerta will be victorious in his UFC debut with a TKO in round 1.
UFC 63 - Hughes vs. Penn early preview:
Three is a Crowd atop the UFC Welterweight Division
On September 23rd, Hawaiian jiu-jitsu expert BJ Penn will challenge Matt Hughes for the UFC Welterweight title. This was supposed to be Canadian Georges St. Pierre’s title shot, but St. Pierre had to drop out due to injury a month before the bout. To confuse things, Penn, St. Pierre and Hughes all have legitimate claims to the title because of contract disputes and poor matchmaking. How did we get here?
Two years ago, a 23 year old Georges St. Pierre lost for the first time in his career. At UFC 50, Matt Hughes submitted St. Pierre with one second left in the first round and claimed the vacant welterweight title. St. Pierre went back to the drawing board and since then, has been on a rampage. He pounded out an easy 3 round decision versus Jason Miller at UFC 52. He choked out former #1 contender Frank Trigg at UFC 54 in the first round. In the most impressive win of his career, he stopped Shean Sherk with elbow strikes in the second round at UFC 56. Sherk’s only previous loss in 30 fights was a five round decision to Hughes at UFC 42 in 2003. After beating Sherk, St. Pierre was once again first in line for title shot and rematch with Hughes. However the UFC had other ideas. St Pierre would not get his title shot without first fighting BJ Penn.
Maybe people new to the sport didn’t even know who BJ Penn was while many die hard fans considered him the true UFC Welterweight Champion. Nicknamed “The Prodigy”, the Hilo, Hawaii native is of the most talented jiu-jitsu fighters on the planet. He’s the first non-Brazilian to win the World Jiu-Jitsu Championships at the black belt level. He describes himself as America’s most decorated Jiu-Jitsu fighter. He is one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in mixed martial arts today.
But despite Penn’s talent and potential, he heart and desire have been questioned. He fought most of his early UFC career at lightweight but never actually won the lightweight title. After several dominating wins, Penn’s first career loss came to Jens Pulver, a 5 round decision for the 155 lbs title. In that fight, Penn dominated the first two rounds, almost submitting Pulver at the end of the second round. But then Pulver came back to win the last three rounds in a row to take a five round decision. Pulver left to fight in Japan so the UFC created a lightweight tournament to find a new champion. Penn made it to the finals at UFC 41, but fought to a five round draw with Japanese fighter Caol Uno.
Just when Penn seemed incapable of winning a championship fight, he silenced his critics and shocked the UFC by jumping up a weight class to welterweight and beating champion Matt Hughes convincingly at UFC 46. The fight wasn’t even close as Penn hurt Hughes standing with strikes and then on the ground he effortlessly sunk in a choke to win in the first round. As Penn celebrated, a bloodied Matt Hughes sat on the mat looking confused and shocked that a former lightweight had just dismantled him.
Penn never once defended his new welterweight title. The UFC and Penn could not agree to a new contract and he left the organization. The UFC had to put the title up for grabs because they figured Penn wasn’t coming back. So when Hughes and St. Pierre fought for the first time at UFC 50, it was for the “vacant” welterweight title. During his absence, Penn fought sporadically for K1 in Japan and Rumble-on-the-Rock in Hawaii. In K1, he had his second career loss via decision, this time to Loyto Machida, the undefeated 205 lbs fighter who gave UFC Middleweight Champion Rich Franklin his only loss. Although Penn didn’t look great outside the UFC, he was inexplicably fighting people above his natural weight classes of 155 lbs and 175 lbs.
When UFC President Dana White surprisingly announced that he had resigned Penn last November, casual UFC fans said, “Who’s that?” while hard core fans felt the true champion was back. When they announced the Penn vs. St. Pierre fight for UFC 58 it upset all the fighters involved. St. Pierre wanted his title shot and rematch with Hughes. Penn was also upset that he didn’t get the first crack at Hughes. Hughes was upset that he wouldn’t get to face Penn right away to avenge his loss.
At UFC 58 in March, Penn came into the ring wearing the championship belt he never lost. The fight started out with Penn and St. Pierre striking at each other. Many though Pierre would be the superior striker, but that clearly wasn’t the case. Pierre’s kicks were expertly blocked by Penn and BJ landed some devastating punches. An uppercut broke St. Pierre’s nose and another punch had him literally seeing double. He would say after the fight, “I saw two of BJ Penn.” At the end of round one, he was bloodied and battered.
But St. Pierre smartly changed strategy over the next two rounds. He was able to avoid any more heavy strikes and worked for takedowns. He never hurt Penn from the ground or the clinch but he established enough control to win the last two rounds and get a split-decision victory. St. Pierre may have won on the scorecards but he never hurt Penn seriously. After the fight, St. Pierre went straight to the hospital for his facial injuries. It’s hard to say that fight answered any questions about who was the better fighter. It created even more confusion in the welterweight division. Did St. Pierre just win the title from Penn? But Matt Hughes still had the official title.
Hughes desperately wanted to face Penn and avenge his defeat. But UFC President Dana White and UFC matchmaker Joe Silva had no choice but to give St Pierre the first crack at Hughes, leaving BJ in limbo. Penn and St. Pierre would both have to wait for Hughes to easily get past UFC legend Royce Gracie in a non-title fight in May. During that time, St. Pierre worked as a coach on “The Ultimate Fighter” season 4. Penn faded back out of the spotlight. The summer went by and finally the Hughes vs. St Pierre fight was officially announced for September 23rd.
A month before the fight, disaster struck for St. Pierre. He tore his groin training and his trainers determined he couldn’t be ready for September 23rd. Dana White probably hesitated for about one second before calling BJ Penn who was already training for an unknown opponent in October. Usually when a fighter drops out before a match, the replacement fighter is never as good. But Penn vs. Hughes is a more appealing fight than St. Pierre vs. Hughes. This fight will definitely answer more questions. Did Hughes just take Penn lightly the first time they fought or is Penn really the better welterweight? Has Hughes improved dramatically since their last encounter or has he just faced easier opposition? Frank Trigg, Royce Gracie, and Joe Riggs are not world class welterweights. Does Penn really have the desire and work ethic to harness his talent and be champion again? Will age be a factor for Hughes (33) or his he just reaching his prime? We will find out on September 23rd in the replacement fight that we all wanted to see anyway.
Links:
UFC 63 link: http://www.ufc.com/index.cfm?fa=eventDetail.FightCard&eid=206
St. Pierre fight history: http://www.sherdog.com/fightfinder/fightfinder.asp?FighterID=3500
Penn fight history:
http://www.sherdog.com/fightfinder/fightfinder.asp?FighterID=1307
Hughes fight history:
http://www.sherdog.com/fightfinder/fightfinder.asp?FighterID=232
Videos:
BJ Penn destroying current Pride Fighting Championships lightweight champion Tankanori Gomi http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AgHN_yYYYzY&mode=related&search=
St. Pierre highlights: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=8896954489142456782&q=St+Pierre
Hughes highlights:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j3JzFSXoNPc
